vendredi 24 juin 2016


La merveilleuse Jo Cox est morte pour rien. Albion se retire d’Europe. Point, à la ligne.  Pas si simple!
DiverCity n’est ni surpris ni surtout étonné mais absolument ravi. Le peuple d’Angleterre s’est exprimé et a dit non clairement à L’Europe. Bye Bye Britain. Tout le reste participe de l’imprévisible : jusqu’où la chute de la livre ? Vers une dissolution des chambres et de nouvelles élections ?  Mort politique de Cameron ? Implosion da parti conservateur écartelé entre une minorité Brexit et une majorité pro européenne.  Quid de l’Ecosse? Qui d’autre demandera l’exit? L’Europe va-t-elle se ressaisir ou au contraire imploser ? Où sont les hommes/femmes  d’Etat pour redresser le manche à balais  Quid de l’avenir de la City première place financière européenne (mondiale  selon certains)
What happens next?
“After rejecting the union, Brexiters must Britain choose between an exit from the single market and a half-in, half-out purgatory”?
Will the long-term consequences of a leave vote be seismic?
Will anything  change immediately?
A definite end of a 43-year love-hate relationship with the European Union ? A turning point in British history to rank alongside the two world wars of the 20th century? Is there a possible turning back?
So what happens next? Can the  prime minister leave until he can advise the Queen on the identity of his successor?  Will Cameron  trigger article 50, the part of the Lisbon treaty that sets in train a two-year process whereby a member state can notify the EU council of its decision to leave? Constitutionally, the triggering of article 50 is a decision for him alone, not parliament, since it is a matter of the royal prerogative.
Will the Brexit referendum actually start a two-year negotiation with the EU that must end with the UK’s ejection?
Should Brexit be viewed as a process or  a single moment of departure, a sort of Norway Arrangement?  Faced by centrifugal forces, will the EU wish to act decisively, something it rarely does?
The commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, said before the vote: “Cameron got the maximum he could receive and we gave the maximum we could give. So there will be no renegotiation, not on the agreement we found in February, nor as far as any kind of treaty negotiations are concerned.” Is that that so sure?
How will the EU prevent calls for parallel referenda proliferate in the Netherlands, France, Poland or Hungary?
Will the whole EU project we slip from paralysis to disintegration?
Will Cameron restore relations with his  two old conservative friends that have laid him so low – Gove and Boris Johnson? Do those two travel without maps?
Autrement dit: est ce début de la fin de l’Europe ou la fin d’un début de 60 ans marqués par les atermoiements systématiques et obtus de Brittania ?
Rien ne serait plus réjouissant qu’un nouveau départ.
MG (inspiré largement par The Guardian)

PM due to make statement after UK rejected his arguments to remain in the EU. Here are the key questions he has to address
1. What will be done to calm the markets? With the pound in freefall, will the Bank of England intervene? There has even been talk of closing the stock market to stop panic selling of shares. Cameron will have to say something to steady nerves.
2. Will he remain as prime minister? No one expects him to leave Number 10 this morning, but does he really think he will be able to oversee the EU withdrawal process over the next few year? Perhaps he does. More likely, he will recognise that is unrealistic. In that case it is possible he may announce his intention to stand down later this year, possibly before the Tory conference.
3. Will he invoke article 50 of the Lisbon treaty immediately? This is the process that starts the two-year countdown to Brexit. Before the referendum Cameron said he would trigger article 50 straight away, but there is no reason why he should and every reason to delay. It makes no sense to start the two-year clock running until the UK knows what it wants. He would be wise to clarify his intentions.
4. Will parliament be recalled? There is a strong case for saying it should sit on Saturday, to allow the government to assure MPs that it has a plan before the markets open again on Monday.
5. Who will be in charge of the withdrawal negotiations? This begs the huge question as to what mandate will apply to those doing the negotiating. Will Cameron seek cross-party agreement? Will he take the Vote Leave programme as a manifesto he is bound to honour? For example, will the UK definitely withdraw from the single market?
6. Will there be an emergency budget? George Osborne said an emergency budget would be necessary this summer. Does that still apply, or will Cameron write that off as campaign scaremongering?
7. Will there be an election? There is a case for saying a new prime minister may need a mandate for the withdrawal negotiations – although there are probably very few people in Westminster with the appetite for another election now.
8. Does Cameron accept that the Scots have the right to have a second independence referendum? During the campaign he said the 2014 referendum was supposed to last for a generation, but there were some moments during the campaign when he accepted that the Scots would have a case for demanding a second referendum if they voted to stay in the EU while the UK as a whole voted out. And that is what has happened.

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