mercredi 13 décembre 2017

Jared Kushner is wreaking havoc in the Middle East



‘Both the US and Saudi Arabia are concentrating power into fewer and fewer hands.’ Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
Contact author  @BayoumiMoustafa


The Guardian
Moustafa Bayoumi
In his role as the president’s special advisor, Kushner seems to have decided he can remake the entire Middle East. The results could be devastating


The entire Middle East, from Palestine to Yemen, appears set to burst into flames after this week. The region was already teetering on the edge, but recent events have only made things worse. And while the mayhem should be apparent to any casual observer, what’s less obvious is Jared Kushner’s role in the chaos.
Kushner is, of course, the US president’s senior advisor and son-in-law. The 36-year-old is a Harvard graduate who seems to have a hard time filling in forms correctly.
He repeatedly failed to mention his meetings with foreign officials on his security clearance and neglected to report to US government officials that he was co-director of a foundation that raised money for Israeli settlements, considered illegal under international law. (He is also said to have told Michael Flynn last December to call UN security council members to get a resolution condemning Israeli settlements quashed. Flynn called Russia.)
In his role as the president’s special advisor, Kushner seems to have decided he can remake the entire Middle East, and he is wreaking his havoc with his new best friend, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, the 32-year-old who burst on to the international scene by jailing many members of his country’s ruling elite, including from his own family, on corruption charges.
Days before Salman’s unprecedented move, Kushner was with the crown prince in Riyadh on an unannounced trip. The men are reported to have stayed up late, planning strategy while swapping stories. We don’t know what exactly the two were plotting, but Donald Trump later tweeted his “great confidence” in Salman.
But the Kushner-Salman alliance moves far beyond Riyadh. The Saudis and Americans are now privately pushing a new “peace” deal to various Palestinian and Arab leaders that is more lop-sided toward Israel than ever before.
Ahmad Tibi, a Palestinian parliamentarian in the Israeli Knesset, explained the basic contours of the deal to the New York Times: no full statehood for Palestinians, only “moral sovereignty.” Control over disconnected segments of the occupied territories only. No capital in East Jerusalem. No right of return for Palestinian refugees. 


TRUMP’S ERROR ON JERUSALEM IS A DISASTER FOR THE ARAB WORLD … AND THE US TOO
Rashid Khalidi

This is, of course, not a deal at all. It’s an insult to the Palestinian people. Another Arab official cited in the Times story explained that the proposal came from someone lacking experience but attempting to flatter the family of the American president. In other words, it’s as if Mohammed bin Salman is trying to gift Palestine to Jared Kushner, Palestinians be damned.
Next came Donald Trump throwing both caution and international law to the wind by recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
But it’s not just Israel, either. Yemen is on the brink of a major humanitarian disaster largely because the country is being blockaded by Saudi Arabia. Trump finally spoke out against the Saudi measure this week, but both the state department and the Pentagon are said to have been privately urging Saudi Arabia and the UAE to ease their campaign against Yemen (and Lebanon and Qatar) for some time and to little impact. Why? Because Saudi and Emirati officials believe they “have tacit approval from the White House for their hardline actions, in particular from Donald Trump and his son-in-law and senior adviser, Jared Kushner,” journalist Laura Rozen reported.
The Kushner-Salman alliance has particularly irked secretary of state Rex Tillerson. Kushner reportedly leaves the state department completely out of his Middle Eastern plans. Of special concern to Tillerson, according to Bloomberg News, is Kushner’s talks with Salman regarding military action by Saudi Arabia against Qatar. The state department is worried of all the unforeseen consequences such a radical course of action would bring, including heightened conflict with Turkey and Russia and perhaps even a military response from Iran or an attack on Israel by Hezbollah.
Here’s where state department diplomacy should kick in. The US ambassador to Qatar could relay messages between the feuding parties to find a solution to the stand-off. So what does the ambassador to Qatar have to say about the Kushner-Salman alliance? Nothing, since there still is no confirmed ambassador to Qatar.
What about the US ambassador to Saudi Arabia? That seat’s also vacant. And the US ambassador to Jordan, Morocco, Egypt? Vacant, vacant, and vacant. What about assistant secretary for Near Eastern affairs, a chief strategic post to establish US policy in the region? No one’s been nominated. Deputy assistant secretary for press and public diplomacy? Vacant.
It’s partly this vacuum of leadership by Tillerson that has enabled Kushner to forge his powerful alliance with Salman, much to the detriment of the region. And in their zeal to isolate Iran, Kushner and Salman are leaving a wake of destruction around them.
The war in Yemen is only intensifying. Qatar is closer to Iran than ever. A final status deal between Israel and the Palestinians seems all but impossible now. The Lebanese prime minister went back on his resignation. And the Saudi state must be paying the Ritz-Carlton a small fortune to jail key members of the ruling family over allegations of corruption.
There’s a long history of American politicians deciding they know what’s best for the Middle East while buttressing their autocratic allies and at the expense of the region’s ordinary people.
But the Kushner-Salman alliance also represents something else. Both the US and Saudi Arabia are concentrating power into fewer and fewer hands. And with fewer people in the room, who will be around to tell these men that their ideas are so damaging? Who will dare explain to them how they already have failed?
• Moustafa Bayoumi is the author of the award-winning books How Does It Feel To Be a Problem?: Being Young and Arab in America 


COMMENTAIRE DE DIVERCITY
QUAND JARED KUSHNER ET SON COMPLICE SAUDI, MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN, PRINCE HÉRITIER D'ARABIE SAOUDITE, FICHENT LE BORDEL AU MOYEN ORIENT 

Dans son rôle auto proclamé de conseiller particulier du président, Jared Kushner semble déterminé à remanier entièrement le paysage politique au Moyen-Orient.
Le résultat de cette immixtion dilettante risque d'être franchement désastreux.  Les Etats Unis et l'Arabie Saoudite sont en train de concentrer le pouvoir en un minimum de mains ( into fewer and fewer hands.)
Le Moyen Orient tout entier risque de s'enflammer: de la Palestine au Yémen après une folle semaine diplomatique.
What’s Jared Kushner’s role in the chaos?
La  remarquable analyse de  Moustafa Bayoumi publiée dans le Guardian répond avec une belle pertinence à cette question que tout le monde se pose avec angoisse.
Kushner, 36 ans, diplômé de Harvard puise sa légitimité uniquement dans le fait qu'il est le gendre de Trump.
In his role as the president’s special advisor, Kushner seems to have decided he can remake the entire Middle East, and he is wreaking his havoc with his new best friend, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, the 32-year-old who burst on to the international scene by jailing many members of his country’s ruling elite, including from his own family, on corruption charges.
Donald Trump repeatedly  tweeted his “great confidence” in Salman.
De fait, l'alliance Kushner-Salman entend bien imposer subrepticement "a new peace deal to various Palestinian and Arab leaders that is more lop-sided toward Israel than ever before: no full statehood for Palestinians, only “moral sovereignty.” Control over disconnected segments of the occupied territories only. No capital in East Jerusalem. No right of return for Palestinian refugees.
Trump’s error on Jerusalem is a disaster for the Arab world … and for us to
This is, of course, not a deal at all. Ceci n'a rien d'un accord, ordinaire en effet : it’s an insult to the palestinian people.
Un tel montage ne peut venir que de la part de quelqu'un "lacking experience but attempting to flatter the family of the American president. In other words, it’s as if Mohammed bin Salman is trying to gift Palestine to Jared Kushner, Palestinians be damned."
Cerise sur la gâteau: Trump  fait désormais fi d toute prudence et de tout respect pour le droit international "by recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel."
Ceci ne concerne pas seulement Israël: le Yémen est lui aussi au bord de la crise humanitaire en raison d'un blocage des frontières par l'Arabie Saoudite. Le" pas de deux" Kushner-Salman a le don d'exaspérer Rex Tillerson, le Sécrétaire d'Etat US en titre (ministre des affaires étrangères). Tillerson est particulièrement agacé par le dialogue  Kushner-Salman "regarding military action by Saudi Arabia against Qatar". Il redoute en effet les conséquences imprévisibles  mais irréversibles d'une telle initiative qui risque  notamment  cde déclencher un conflit avec la Turquie et/ou la Russie voire une riposte armée de l'Iran ou encore " an attack on Israel by Hezbollah".
Il s'ajoute à cela que le poste d'ambassadeur US  au Qatar n'a toujours pas été attribué pas plus d'ailleurs que ceux d'autres pays clé du Moyen Orient:  "What about the US ambassador to Saudi Arabia? That seat’s also vacant. And the US ambassador to Jordan, Morocco, Egypt? Vacant, vacant, and vacant. What about assistant secretary for Near Eastern affairs, a chief strategic post to establish US policy in the region? No one’s been nominated. Deputy assistant secretary for press and public diplomacy? Vacant."
C'est précisément ce vide diplomatique  (this vacuum of leadership by Tillerson) qui a permis à Kushner de forger une puissante alliance avec  Salman, "much to the detriment of the region. And in their zeal to isolate Iran, Kushner and Salman are leaving a wake of destruction around them."
A final status deal between Israel and the Palestinians seems all but impossible now.
Both the US and Saudi Arabia are concentrating power into fewer and fewer hands. And with fewer people in the room, who will be around to tell these men that their ideas are so damaging? Who will dare explain to them how they already have failed?
On a l'impression que le seul type normal (qui respecte la norme diplomatique) à savoir le secrétaire d'Etat Tillerson est systématiquement mis sur la touche par Donald Trump qui suit aveuglément la ligne pro israélienne de gendre. On a même laissé entendre qu'il serait sur le départ. On n'a franchement plus vu pareil dilettantisme depuis les velléités d'Hitler à conduire les opérations militaires en Union Soviétique au grand dam des chefs d'Etat-major de la Wehrmacht avec les conséquences que l'on sait: le désastre allemand  de Stalingrad.
Il se joue au Moyen-Orient une partie de poker menteur redoutable pour la paix mondiale. Emmanuel Macron l'a compris mieux que personne mais, répétons le, il ne réussira rien sans une caution européenne. Or celle-ci ne peut venir que d'une reprise du dialogue franco-allemand. Berlin est en panne après l'échec des négociations de Merkel avec les verts et les libéraux surtout. Seule une grande coalition avec un Schultz radicalement européen aux affaires étrangères pourrait apporter à Macron le soutien qu'il sollicite de l'Allemagne.
Steinmeier le Président de la république fédérale allemande en est parfaitement conscient. Cet ancien et brillant ministre des affaires étrangères (SPD) de RFA fait pression sur Martin Schulz (président de la SPD) pour que cet "Européen radical" (Schulz sur Schulz) s'allie à nouveau au parti de Angela Merkel désormais très affaiblie. 
La décision de Schulz risque d'avoir un impact inouï sur l'avenir de la paix au Moyen Orient et dans le monde On envisage une coatition de coopération.  Poutine semble hésiter à réagir. Il est vrai que l'homme fort de Moscou marche sur le oeufs quatre mois avant les nouvelles élections.
Cette conjoncture folle me rappelle celle du grand chamboulement qui a suivi l'attentat de Sarajevo contre l'héritier de l'Empire austro- hongrois le 28 juin 1914.  Trump a cessé de m'inquiéter. Désormais il me fait franchement peur.
MG 


WAS IST EINE KOOPERATIONSKOALITION?

GroKo oder KoKo - noch ist immer nicht klar, auf welches Regierungsmodell sich Merkel und Schulz einigen werden. 


(Foto: REUTERS)
Süddeutsche Zeitung
Nach Neuwahlen, Minderheitsregierung und großer Koalition bringt die SPD ein neues Modell ins Gespräch: die Koko, eine Kooperationskoalition. Was das ist und wie sie gelingen kann.



 


  

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